Original article: A closer look at U.S. deaths due to COVID-19
According to new data, the U.S. currently ranks first in total COVID-19 cases, new cases per day and deaths. Genevieve Briand, assistant program director of the Applied Economics master’s degree program at Hopkins, critically analyzed the effect of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in her webinar titled “COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data.”
From mid-March to mid-September, U.S. total deaths have reached 1.7 million, of which 200,000, or 12% of total deaths, are COVID-19-related. Instead of looking directly at COVID-19 deaths, Briand focused on total deaths per age group and per cause of death in the U.S. and used this information to shed light on the effects of COVID-19.
She explained that the significance of COVID-19 on U.S. deaths can be fully understood only through comparison to the number of total deaths in the United States.
After retrieving data on the CDC website, Briand compiled a graph representing percentages of total deaths per age category from early February to early September, which includes the period from before COVID-19 was detected in the U.S. to after infection rates soared.
Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.
“The reason we have a higher number of reported COVID-19 deaths among older individuals than younger individuals is simply because every day in the U.S. older individuals die in higher numbers than younger individuals,” Briand said.
Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.
These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.
Do the numbers justify the response?
I’m not one to buy into conspiracy theories or to try to create new ones, but I have to say searching for what should be very easy to find on the Internet seems to be intentionally made difficult, and I do not believe it is by accident.
If you want to frustrate yourself, Google “All deaths in the United States in 2020” and see if you receive the answer.
I will tell you what I found — absolutely nothing that would provide a single number of deaths in the United States in 2020 beyond March.
We get minute-by-minute counts on deaths related to COVID-19, but cannot receive a number of all deaths? Does that not seem strange to you.
I finally found a place that had numbers for state-by-state deaths and had to add them up, but I was able to find out on a running clock just how many people have died so far in 2020.
Why is this important?
The main reason is to find out the effect of the coronavirus on the nation, and to see if the Center for Disease Control’s assertion that coronavirus is causing a spike in the death rate is accurate.
It would be easy for the CDC to justify their claim — show the number of deaths in 2019 or 2018 or 2017 and compare those numbers to the total umber of deaths in 2020.
Since they haven’t done that, I will do it for them and share the data with you.
For a moment, let’s act like coronavirus never existed and see what the death rate should be for 2020 had we never experienced a pandemic.
To make any such projection, we would need to see trends from previous years.
In 2016, a total of 2,744,248 Americans died, according to the CDC. Here are the death rates of the past four years:
2016 — 2,744,248
2017 — 2,813,503
2018 — 2,839,205
2019 — 2,855,000
It is not hard to notice that the death rate has increased for three consecutive years.
Here are the increases each year:
2016 to 2017 — 69,255
2017 to 2018 — 25,702
2018 to 2019 — 15,795
The average increase of the past four years has been 36,917.
Based on the average and adding that to the death rate in 2019, we should be able to project the death rate in 2020 to be around 2,891,917.
So what is it so far?
It should be a simple number to find.
The CDC only reports the death rate from January to March.
I searched the Internet over to find anyone reporting any death numbers in the United States, and it is almost impossible.