2020 Democrat Candidates’ Radical Criminal Justice Reform Hurts the Minorities that the Leftists Pretend to Represent

Rafael Mangual of the Manhattan Institute said that the Democrats’ extreme criminal justice plan is popular because the public has been indoctrinated into believing that the the American justice system is racially biased. Crime spikes when the public perceives the justice system to be illegitimate. For example, in Chicago, police terminated stop-and-frisk encounters in late 2015, and murders increased by 58% by the end of 2016. An astounding 239 additional murders were attributed to the police withdrawal. The minority populations that the Democrats say they are representing are suffering from more crime due to radical leftist policies.

The increase in incarceration, portrayed as “mass incarceration,” is responsible for a 25% decline in crime from the peak in the1990s.

Paul Cassell’s study about how stop-and-frisk police action stops gun violence:


Homicides increased dramatically in Chicago in 2016. In 2015, 480 Chicago residents were killed. The next year, 754 were killed—274 additional homicide victims, tragically producing an extraordinary 58% in-crease in a single year.

This Article attempts to unravel what happened.This Article provides empirical evidence that the reduction in stop and frisks by the Chicago Police Department beginning around December 2015 was responsible for the homicide spike that started immediately thereafter. The sharp decline in the number of street stops is a strong candidate for the causal factor, particularly since the timing of the homicide spike so directly coincides with the decline. Regression analysis of the homicide spike and related shooting crimes identifies the street stop variable as the likely cause. The results are highly statistically significant and robust over a large number of alternative specifications. And a qualitative review for possible “omitted variables”in the regression equations fails to identify any other plausible candidate that fits the data as well as the decline in stops.

Our regression equations permit quantification of the costs of the decline in street stops. Because of fewer stops in 2016, it appears that (conservatively calculating) approximately 245 additional victims were killed and 1,108 additional shootings occurred in that year alone. And these tremendous costs are not evenly distributed, but rather are concentrated among Chicago’s African-American and Hispanic communities.

The most likely explanation for the fall in stops that appears to have triggered the homicide spike is a consent decree on the subject entered in-to by the American Civil Liberties Union (“ACLU”) with the Chicago Po-lice Department (“CPD”). Accordingly, modifications to that consent decree may be appropriate.

More broadly, these findings shed important light on the ongoing national debate about stop and frisk policies. The fact that America’s “Second City”suffered so badly from a decline in street stops suggests that the arguably contrary experience in New York City may be an anomaly. The costs of crime—and particularly gun crimes—are too significant to avoid considering every possible measure for reducing the toll. The evidence gathered here suggests that police street stop activities may be truly lifesaving measures that must be considered as part of any effective law enforcement response to gun violence.


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MJ Raichyk, PhD, mathematical decision analyst
MJ Raichyk, PhD, mathematical decision analyst

1– Supposing we simply compared stop-n-frisk with airport security for starters — AS LONG AS THERE’S NO MARIJUANA GAMES PERPETRATED AGAINST THOSE TARGETS.. Presumably the stigma is less. however it only ‘reduces’ the murder and mayhem, not solve or eliminate it. So problem’s not solved YET. 2– Let’s realize that living in those neighborhoods IS A LONG TERM HEALTH HAZARD. Think PTSD, think prisoner of war syndromes, and then don’t be surprised at the level of bad behavior. Think DRUGS, as well. Solutions? YES a) Prisoners of war and concentration camp survivors all seem to have extreme needs for nutrients… Read more »