Italian Research Group Reports that Newest Swab Test for Covid-19 Being Used in China Produces 80% False-Positive Results on Those Who Are Diagnosed on the Basis of Contact Only
Dear all, supporting members and simple sympathizers, these days we are receiving many emails, contacts, messages, which basically ask for help to understand more about this rather extreme situation in which we find ourselves.
We therefore publish this press release in order to respond to everyone, because we risk not being able to keep up with the requests that are coming.
Let’s start by saying that we, as you all know, are simple parents and, consequently, we are experiencing the same problematic situations right now and we very often have the same questions and question marks that you express by writing to us.
These are therefore “personal” considerations but shared by all Corvelva staff, whom we share with you.
First of all, we feel a general invitation to keep calm to stay centered, not to lose the emotional and psychological balance.
Panic never helps, let alone in situations where questions pile up and we have no certainty, we have no answers.
Those who have known us and followed us for years know that we have always remained anchored to concreteness without letting ourselves go to fantasies or hypotheses (whether they are in the air or more likely); forget the rhetoric on the catharsis of the moment and come to the answers to the questions that follow one another:
- On the Vaccine: at the moment there are more ads of vaccines being tested already in humans. So, first of all, the race to vaccine is perfectly normal, for the obvious economic gain that will come to those who will get there first, but more or less the same are the logic of the media announcements: we immediately saw the shares on the stock market jump up high of the companies that started talking about studies on the Covid-19 vaccine, so it is not surprising that there is also the race for the most “victorious” announcement. In fact, the feasibility in terms of effectiveness of a vaccine for a highly mutagenic RNA virus remains to be understood, but, more or less effective, it is almost certain that the vaccine will arrive.
Will you skip clinical trials? In part, in a substantial part, yes: in the event of a pandemic, as now, we have already seen the script repeat, the vaccine can be placed on the market with an extremely speedy procedure, effectively skipping most of the trials and certainly those on large numbers . Effectiveness and safety will in all probability be less verifiable.
- Will the vaccine be mandatory? To date there is no reason to fear it, we abandon the apocalyptic scenarios with visions of coercions and sanitary cordons, not so much because the hypothesis is not plausible, but for the fact that it is imponderable: it could happen or not and, if so, it could be more or less restrictive and it is impossible to predict the future in principle, let alone in detail. We are calm because we have no reason today to fear the worst.
- Are there antibody tests for Covid-19? No, there is no available antibody.
- On swabs: their reliability is unknown, being all new and all set up quickly. A first study came out a few days ago, which estimates 80% of false positives (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832). For the assessments on large numbers we have to wait, just as we have to wait for sensible data on lethality and mortality rates. Here too, there are no certainties.
We are calm because the worry about an unknown future does not help anyone and will not make you “prepared” but only exhausted, in the absence of concrete solutions. Concrete solutions cannot exist as long as you don’t know the size of the problem, so as you can see, you enter a deleterious loop.